It’s been a rough stretch for Americans at the pump, with 28 U.S. states seeing record-high gas prices over the past couple of weeks alone, and, unfortunately, it looks like things are about to get worse. 

According to a research note from JPMorgan, analysts estimate that the national average gas price will likely reach $6 by the end of the summer. “With expectations of strong driving demand…U.S. retail price could surge another 37% by August,” the report states, per CNN. 

The average national gas price rose by two pennies on Tuesday, per AAA, bringing the new record high to $4.52 per gallon. Of course, some areas of the country have seen much higher increases than others. 

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The same AAA report noted that the average price of regular gas in California soared to $6.02 a gallon, a sharp increase over last year’s $4.13 — and a sizable jump from last week’s $5.82. The cost is even steeper in the state’s bigger cities, clocking in at $6.07 in Los Angeles County and $6.27 in San Francisco. 

Part of the issues lie with refineries, which are struggling to produce an adequate amount of gasoline; JPMorgan notes that East Coast gasoline inventories haven’t been this low since 2011. The loss of Russia’s supply as a result of its ongoing war in Ukraine is a contributing factor, as it increases exports from the U.S. and Canadian refineries that typically supply Eastern U.S. gas stations. 

Related: Shell Rakes in $9.1 Billion in First Quarter. What Does It Mean for the Rising Cost of Living?

But some experts are less convinced the national average will really cross that staggering $6 a gallon threshold. “It’s hard to get to $6,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN. “Before we get there, we would have significant demand destruction, not only here, but around the world.”

Even if the national average doesn’t surpass that $6 a gallon mark, it sounds like drivers can expect one expensive summer travel season. 



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